The
rapidly tightening Manhattan office leasing market has
all the charm of a picked over pile of old clothes – all
that’s now left are alarming colors or bizarre creations
made for midgets or giants.
The shrinking vacancy and strong demand that have caused
this mean frustrated tenants. They also mean less informed
ones. In typical market conditions, a tenant looks at a number
of spaces and learns about prevailing terms and prices. But
when only one or two spaces could conceivably work, this
process breaks down, and the tenant remains in the dark.
Another unpleasant
consequence is the market’s intolerance
for considered decision making by tenants. As in the dot.com
boom of the late ‘90s, if you think things over for
a week or two in this market, you’ll almost certainly
be blasted out of the running. You will also often face competition
that offers more than the asking price, as well as agents
who pile on the agony by being vague about price and terms
in the hope of pushing them up as negotiations proceed. You
have to move fast to make a deal.
Although it has
apparent similarities to the dot.com boom, the current
market has a dramatically different dynamic and
will almost certainly come to a different end. Instead of
being driven by a demand bubble, it’s mainly the result
of shrinking supply caused by residential conversions of
commercial properties. In 2000 a demand bubble burst, and
the market rapidly deflated; but the shortages that are driving
the market this time cannot be so easily reversed. There
are, it’s true, a few office buildings under construction
and several planned, but together they don’t add up
to enough new space to effect a change. Conversion of manufacturing
buildings, which has sopped up demand in previous tight markets,
is not an option, either – most of the ones that are
suitable have either already been converted or have gone
residential instead.
The result of
this for us as tenant representative brokers is that the
process of looking for property has changed.
To be sure that we’ve found every possible space, we
have to contact each and every remotely feasible building
in a tenant’s target area and beyond – whether
or not they are advertising available space. Even then we
are seldom able to come up with more than a small handful
of realistic choices.
The result for
tenants is that they are forced to consider buildings and
locations that were unacceptable a year ago –more
and more companies, for example, are heading downtown as
the number of their choices in midtown and midtown south
shrinks – and to do so with virtually no clue of what
they will end up having to pay.
As long as the
general economic picture stays the same, this market looks
set to persist. It is certainly no fun
for tenants, but the pain can be minimized. Now more than
ever, you need to work with a creative, in-touch, broker
who’s not only willing to do the grunt work needed
to uncover all potential choices, but is also highly sensitive
to shifts in market conditions. Which is a perfect description
of …
Sincerely,
Tristram
H. Pough
President |
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